Exco Technologies Ltd. 2

On my other blog I am today writing about judging the price of a stock continue...

I do not own this stock of Exco Technologies Ltd. (TSX-XTC, OTC-EXCOF). This is a stock given as a recommendation by Keystone at the Toronto Money Show of 2012. I decided to check into it as it is a relatively small tech company that is paying dividends. Also, I decided to review this stock because Keystone has recommended some very good stocks in the past.

When I look at insider trading I find some insider buying and some insider selling. There is a more insider selling than buying. Insiders have ownership with the CEO owing shares worth around $98M and around 22% of outstanding shares. There an officer with share worth around $47M and this is some 11% of the outstanding shares.

The 5 year low, median and high median Price/Earnings per Share ratios are 8.28, 10.03 and 11.78. The corresponding 10 year P/E Ratios are a bit higher at 8.39, 10.21 and 12.04. The current P/E Ratio is 15.05 based on a stock price of $18.30 and 2015 EPS estimate of $0.95. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively high. However, on an absolute basis, a P/E Ratio of 15 is not high.

I get a Graham Price of $10.34. The 10 year low, median and high median Price/Graham Price Ratios are 0.73, 0.76 and 1.24. The current P/GP Ratio is 1.38 based on a stock price of $14.30. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively high.

The 10 year Price/Book Value per Share Ratio is 1.19. The current P/B Ratio at 2.86 is some 140% higher based on a stock price of $18.30 and BVPS of $5.01. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively high.

I get 5 year median, historical average and historical median Dividend Yields of 2.97%, 2.47% and 1.97%. These are 43%, 32% and 15% higher than the current dividend yield of 1.68%. The current yield is based on a dividend $0.24 and a stock price of $18.30. This stock price testing suggests that the stock price is relatively high.

The company Exco Technologies announces a 20% dividend increase because of strong business fundamentals. The web site Dakota Financial News has announced some recent recommendations from analysts. At the end of 2014, Exco Technologies announced a major new contract.

When I look at analysts' recommendations, I get Strong Buy and Buy recommendations. The consensus would be a Buy Recommendation. The 12 month stock price consensus is $14.90. This implies a total return of 5.87% with 4.20% from capital gains and $1.68% from dividends. To me, the consensus stock price does not support a Buy recommendation, but the stock price has been rising strongly lately.

Sound bite for Twitter and StockTwits is: Expensive, but has momentum. On a relative historical basis, the stock price is getting expensive. However, this stock current has good momentum. See my spreadsheet at xtc.htm.

This is the second of two parts. The first part was posted on Friday, February 6, 2015 and is available here. The first part talks about the stock and the second part talks about the stock price.

Exco is a global designer, developer and manufacturer of dies, moulds, equipment, components and assemblies to the die-cast, extrusion and automotive industries. The Die Casting and Extrusion Technology groups operations are based in Canada, U.S., Mexico and Colombia and primarily serve automotive and industrial markets throughout the world. The Automotive Solutions Group has facilities are located in Canada, U.S., Mexico and Morocco and supply the North American, European and Asian markets. Its web site is here Exco Technologies.

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

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